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Oct 5, 2012
10/12
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we do have an election coming up. but i think the unpinnings of our economy can do a lot more like canada without a whole lot of effort whether energy or retail in the end this number may be very strange but i still think canada gives me a bit of hope. back to you. >> the canadian number is one to watch. we'll see you in a few moments. we should mention the president is being introduced in fairfax, virginia. when he comes to the podium we'll take that live. in the meantime a quick break. we'll talk to the congresswoman trying to save you money on your insurance bill. congresswoman judy biggert will talk how americans are funding big bank bailouts after a quick break. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, weat over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. it's another reason
we do have an election coming up. but i think the unpinnings of our economy can do a lot more like canada without a whole lot of effort whether energy or retail in the end this number may be very strange but i still think canada gives me a bit of hope. back to you. >> the canadian number is one to watch. we'll see you in a few moments. we should mention the president is being introduced in fairfax, virginia. when he comes to the podium we'll take that live. in the meantime a quick break....
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Oct 4, 2012
10/12
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the election as you know has already begun. are you getting reports from people in the field from men and women in the military that they can't get their hands on ballots on absentee ballots? are you hearing that? are people writing to you about this? >> what we've done is we've looked at the numbers in individual states to see how many absentee ballots were requested. what we know is that the numbers are at a record low this year when compared to 2008. down by 70% in states like virginia and ohio. and we know that the pentagon knows about the problem and basically they're responding by saying look we're sending out lots of tweets telling soldiers to vote but that's not the answer. they're supposed to have voter registration on military bases. they're supposed to help those service members register for absentee ballots. what we're finding is that they're not doing what they're supposed to do under the law. they're having these voter registration offices in remote places on military bases like the back of the chapel or the back
the election as you know has already begun. are you getting reports from people in the field from men and women in the military that they can't get their hands on ballots on absentee ballots? are you hearing that? are people writing to you about this? >> what we've done is we've looked at the numbers in individual states to see how many absentee ballots were requested. what we know is that the numbers are at a record low this year when compared to 2008. down by 70% in states like virginia...
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Oct 4, 2012
10/12
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pharmaceuticals are less to the elections. they are not completely free of exposure but it is less than on the hospital side. >> wouldn't a romney victory eliminate the exercise tax? wouldn't that be good for medical devices? going forward, however, in this $500 billion plus spend in the medicare program, $400 billion plus in medicaid, it is going to come out of devices to a large extent. >> it was a great story to this spring, fantastic stock taken out to the wood shed. >> can that rally continue? >> i think so. they mispriced earnings in the first quarter and guided down in the second quarter and had a nice rally. it depends on how they guide for 2013 and there should be growth in there regardless of whether it is bam obama and romney. >> do you think the stocks will predict the victory and the polls? >> the stocks told us the surprising outcome prior to the official decision being announced. >> so when it comes to the polling i think the day before the wall street journal poll the stocks rallied a little the polls were clos
pharmaceuticals are less to the elections. they are not completely free of exposure but it is less than on the hospital side. >> wouldn't a romney victory eliminate the exercise tax? wouldn't that be good for medical devices? going forward, however, in this $500 billion plus spend in the medicare program, $400 billion plus in medicaid, it is going to come out of devices to a large extent. >> it was a great story to this spring, fantastic stock taken out to the wood shed. >>...
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Oct 4, 2012
10/12
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if you're elected we'll get to a trillion-dollar debt. you said before you'd cut the deficit in half and i love this idea of $4 trillion in cuts. you found $4 trillion of ways to reduce or get closer to a balanced budget except we show trillion-dollar deficits every year. that doesn't get the job done. >> what you heard from president obama in coming back was saying that mitt romney had abandoned his tax cut plan, that is not true because what mitt romney said was it was going to be paid for but he also said that the challenge of achieving all the things romney wants to do at the same time, cut tax rates, not increase the deficit or burden the middle class is impossible to do. >> the only way to meet governor romney's pledge of not reducing the deficit or not adding to the deficit is by burdening middle class families, the average middle class family with children would pay about $2,000 more. >> now bottom line, guys, i said that i wasn't persuaded that arianna was right this was a game changer. one thing i know is not correct, joe, is yo
if you're elected we'll get to a trillion-dollar debt. you said before you'd cut the deficit in half and i love this idea of $4 trillion in cuts. you found $4 trillion of ways to reduce or get closer to a balanced budget except we show trillion-dollar deficits every year. that doesn't get the job done. >> what you heard from president obama in coming back was saying that mitt romney had abandoned his tax cut plan, that is not true because what mitt romney said was it was going to be paid...
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Oct 3, 2012
10/12
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in trade showing obama ahead by two about a 72% probability of being re-elected. our chief washington correspondent john harwood live at the event site in denver. john, what's the objective for romney tonight? what does he need to do? >> mitt romney's got a very big task. he's got to do a couple things at the same time. first he's got to find a way to dent the argument that bill clinton and barack obama made at the democratic convention about how president obama's done as well as anyone could do in turning the economy around the last four years. secondly, he's got to make a positive case with passion, with credibility for his own economic plans, for how he's going to make life better for 100% of americans. third, he's going to have to deal with that 47% video which has really taken a toll on his campaign. he's got to do all those things at the same time. we've seen the history of debates, tyler. it is not easy to fundamentally turn a race around but we have seen from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll that he's within three points nationally. still possible for hi
in trade showing obama ahead by two about a 72% probability of being re-elected. our chief washington correspondent john harwood live at the event site in denver. john, what's the objective for romney tonight? what does he need to do? >> mitt romney's got a very big task. he's got to do a couple things at the same time. first he's got to find a way to dent the argument that bill clinton and barack obama made at the democratic convention about how president obama's done as well as anyone...
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Oct 3, 2012
10/12
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hasn't said a word about that in the election campaign so far. you can expect the two to clash on that issue, as well. >> john, i know you've looked at some poll numbers from the journal and nbc news. maybe a slight tightening on a national level. but certainly in some important states like ohio, the president continues to lead. i know you've said the romney strategists believe they need ohio. if it's mathematically possible to win without it, why do they still believe they need it? >> well, because if you don't win ohio, you're probably not going to win, say, wisconsin, which is another mid western state, paul ryan's on the ticket, that moves in similar ways to the state of ohio. it's hard to piece together especially given the overwhelming dominance by the president of the hispanic vote, states like colorado where we are right now, or nevada. so ohio may be a better shot for mitt romney. as i mentioned, i was talking to a romney strategist the other day and said, well, you're getting closer in florida, but you're still far behind in ohio. and h
hasn't said a word about that in the election campaign so far. you can expect the two to clash on that issue, as well. >> john, i know you've looked at some poll numbers from the journal and nbc news. maybe a slight tightening on a national level. but certainly in some important states like ohio, the president continues to lead. i know you've said the romney strategists believe they need ohio. if it's mathematically possible to win without it, why do they still believe they need it?...
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Oct 2, 2012
10/12
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all three happening before the election. mitt romney has finally put meat on the bones of his tax reform idea. he floated the idea of a $17,000 cap on tax reform reduction. >> you could say everyone is going to get up to a $17,000 deduction. you can fill that bucket if you will and higher income people might have a lower number. >> this is brand new stuff. we have howard dean former vermont governor and candidate. and let's look at this for a second. what do you think? a $17,000 cap on tax deductions for everybody as a way of being fair because the upper end would pay more. what do you think? >> i don't have a problem with the eidea of deductions. here you are. you guys are talking about the private sector all the time. so, i've been convinced because of the high rate of canadian home ownership, i'm not convinced of doing away with charitable deductions. $17,000 ceiling for all tax deductions across the board. sure, steve. the upper end people would have a problem across the board. >> i like this idea a lot. i just heard abo
all three happening before the election. mitt romney has finally put meat on the bones of his tax reform idea. he floated the idea of a $17,000 cap on tax reform reduction. >> you could say everyone is going to get up to a $17,000 deduction. you can fill that bucket if you will and higher income people might have a lower number. >> this is brand new stuff. we have howard dean former vermont governor and candidate. and let's look at this for a second. what do you think? a $17,000 cap...
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Oct 2, 2012
10/12
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>> look, i hope that after this election, that the two parties will pull together and do what's right for this country. though having said that, despite all the infighting and bickering, i think it does look like america is back on the right track. i think america is through the worst now. hopefully the next four years will be a lot better than the last four years. >> i want to ask but your book, the title is "richard branson, like a virgin, secret these don't teach you at business school." what is the number one secret they don't teach you at business school that has been responsible for your success, do you think? >> i suspect the number one see jet they don't say, maybe it is better no to the go to business school it is better to just get out there and learn to run a business by actually trying to run a business. >> which you did very early on in life? >> yeah. and i think if you look at it a lot of the successful business people, you know, left school quite early on and just went and rolled up their sleeves and gave it a go and you just learn, you know, so much by getting in the j
>> look, i hope that after this election, that the two parties will pull together and do what's right for this country. though having said that, despite all the infighting and bickering, i think it does look like america is back on the right track. i think america is through the worst now. hopefully the next four years will be a lot better than the last four years. >> i want to ask but your book, the title is "richard branson, like a virgin, secret these don't teach you at...
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Oct 2, 2012
10/12
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>> i think the answer is the certainty of the election is that it will be over. which ever guy wins is going to have to do an enormous amount of stuff very immediately and very hard and based op. all of the other stuff we're looking at it's hard not to assume we're on the cusp of going back in a recession. >> that's frightening. >> well it's, the word frightening is too strong. the reality is that business is all about cycles. we did through positive and negative cycles and the opportunity for us is to take advantage of a positive cycles, so mitigate the negative cycles. what we've just come through is four years of a positive cycle that has been limited dramatically by political action. that's scary and that's not what's supposed to happen. >> we didn't get the bounce back that we were -- >> well, we created so many headwinds. we created so many issues and the environmental protection agency and you'd think on what it does t isn't part of america's education. >> nobody, no president, not me, not any other president could have done any better over the last four y
>> i think the answer is the certainty of the election is that it will be over. which ever guy wins is going to have to do an enormous amount of stuff very immediately and very hard and based op. all of the other stuff we're looking at it's hard not to assume we're on the cusp of going back in a recession. >> that's frightening. >> well it's, the word frightening is too strong. the reality is that business is all about cycles. we did through positive and negative cycles and...
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Oct 1, 2012
10/12
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and the market may or may not be pricing in an obama re-election. that's all going to potentially change during the debates. it will either go higher or lower. i think at the end of the day, the election is a short term mover of the marketplace and we would look for that volatility to add positions that we have a lot of conviction in. >> we've got to leave it there. tom, leo, thank you very much for kicking off our show. >> thank you very much. >>> so, what are you, america, doing with your money. how are you changing your investments, your 401(k). right? a lot? a little? not at all? we make our tests hard here on street signs. you can go to streetsigns.cnbc.com. or tweet us your responses or send a very well trained pigeon. >> yes. >>> a market flash not delivered by pigeon but by word of mouth. >> good afternoon, guys. we're watching shares of service now, ticker now. looking at a downgrade from ubs. they took the stock from neutral to sell with a price target of $28. the firm is saying while they aren't questioning the strong fundamentals, they d
and the market may or may not be pricing in an obama re-election. that's all going to potentially change during the debates. it will either go higher or lower. i think at the end of the day, the election is a short term mover of the marketplace and we would look for that volatility to add positions that we have a lot of conviction in. >> we've got to leave it there. tom, leo, thank you very much for kicking off our show. >> thank you very much. >>> so, what are you,...
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Oct 1, 2012
10/12
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>> everybody points out the fiscal cliff, election, fiscal issues are certainly important. what's important to me from an equity perspective is seeing taxation on equity returns kept low. i really don't want to see the dividend or capital gains rate go any higher than 25%. i'd like to see these two rates stay equal to each other. that's important to us. >> is there a cost to the market associated with that changing n your view? >> yeah, if the dividend rate goes up to the marginal income tax rate, this market will give back some of the rally and it will limit the upside for next year. >> is there a point at which you see obama in the polls and you say actually now i believe that we are going to get the tax hikes and the market should fall? there must be a watershed quite soon as we head towards particularly what happens in the house and the senate. >> our focus has been on the senate. we think that's what's going to mostly influence the outcome. i hope there's appetite to see the rates low. i don't see a benefit from raising them. i would call a coin toss on the senate outc
>> everybody points out the fiscal cliff, election, fiscal issues are certainly important. what's important to me from an equity perspective is seeing taxation on equity returns kept low. i really don't want to see the dividend or capital gains rate go any higher than 25%. i'd like to see these two rates stay equal to each other. that's important to us. >> is there a cost to the market associated with that changing n your view? >> yeah, if the dividend rate goes up to the...
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Oct 1, 2012
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and then after the election higher into the year. i think that's the way it will play, that's the way it played the past couple years. i think it playses that way here. >> is it dependent on what solution they have for the fiscal cliff, if any? >> the body language i get is that it sounds oxymoronic, but they'll get hc-- postpone the mandated spending cuts and spend the bush tax cuts. so i think that's off the table here at last in the short run. >> if we kick the can down the road another six months or so, what will that mean the difference of the bush tax cuts extending for six months or not? >> well, it's good news and bad news. the good news is that all the talk about 4%, 5% of gdp hitting in the first quarter that won't happen. the politicians may be ineffective in many ways, but they won't allow that. at the same time, if we just keep kicking the can down the road, well be addressing this uncertainty every since months. we saw it at the end of 2010, we saw it again at the end of 2011. if we just keep doing this every six months
and then after the election higher into the year. i think that's the way it will play, that's the way it played the past couple years. i think it playses that way here. >> is it dependent on what solution they have for the fiscal cliff, if any? >> the body language i get is that it sounds oxymoronic, but they'll get hc-- postpone the mandated spending cuts and spend the bush tax cuts. so i think that's off the table here at last in the short run. >> if we kick the can down the...
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Sep 28, 2012
09/12
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they have to win a choice election. that is clear. if that is the case -- >> tloing the middle class. they have to link. >> they have to link the case. >> four years. >> you have to link the tax cuts to the middle class and get them out of this mess. >> larry you get disappointed when doesn't mention supply side. >> only supply ciders win. all the other guys, john mccain, bob dole and pa a pa bush, they are not supply cider and they lose. >> he comes from the business world. he comes from the business world. >> roger stone, i think mitt needs better humor. i was watching a video with mitt and anne. i think they are great people. they said what is your biggest treat and anne said having a jelly doughnut that's your biggest treat. that's a little weak. and the interviewer asking mitt, and he says peanut butter sandwich and chocolate milk. nobody drinks chocolate milk anymore. mitt should have said i really love sitting in the back of my bentley convertible and having my driver take me out to the country. that would have been totally coo
they have to win a choice election. that is clear. if that is the case -- >> tloing the middle class. they have to link. >> they have to link the case. >> four years. >> you have to link the tax cuts to the middle class and get them out of this mess. >> larry you get disappointed when doesn't mention supply side. >> only supply ciders win. all the other guys, john mccain, bob dole and pa a pa bush, they are not supply cider and they lose. >> he comes...
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Sep 28, 2012
09/12
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but it is helping stocks, but i do think, you know, the election could change so many things. it could make the fourth quarter great. it could make the fourth quarter less than great. one thing we know for sure, there's going to be a lot of volatility right about that time. when i think about high frequency trade and flash crash and how it affects the market on calm days, i shutter to think what kind of activity we're going to have if we get sweeps by either the left or the right on november 7th in the marketplace. >> that's a good point. jason, we're looking at the third quarter now ending. you come into work on the fourth quarter. what are you going to do? what's an your agenda? >> sure. we actually agree with a lot of what your other guests have said here. there's a lot of risk surrounding the fiscal cliff. our best case is it will be pushed on and not dealt with immediately, therefore the risk will be moved or pushed off to another day. in the meantime, there's a supportive economic backdrop. it's getting a little better. you need to take risk but not too much risk. what t
but it is helping stocks, but i do think, you know, the election could change so many things. it could make the fourth quarter great. it could make the fourth quarter less than great. one thing we know for sure, there's going to be a lot of volatility right about that time. when i think about high frequency trade and flash crash and how it affects the market on calm days, i shutter to think what kind of activity we're going to have if we get sweeps by either the left or the right on november...
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Sep 28, 2012
09/12
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that compares to only 40% of women voters who support mitt in the broader election. welly women in fact support romney more than wealthy men. so why do wealthy women like romney? it's not taxes. taxes didn't rank among the top five concerns of women. ron kurts says that affluent women place a higher emphasis on economic and budget issues and they see romney as the better candidate for those issues. that doesn't mean that romney is scoring well with all after fluent women. in fact, 16% of these women remain undecided. he's still got a lot of work to do among the better half of the upper class over the next 39 days. >> when you talk about more work to do, what specifically would you advise him to do? >> this is the age-old question among men. how to woo wealthy women, right? that's what all men want to know. >> the secret elixir. >> so if i own knew. look. >> that's a whole different show, right? >> a whole different show. >> that's tomorrow. >> our documentary special. >> no. i think he needs to connect with them and give specifics on the economic plan. when you look
that compares to only 40% of women voters who support mitt in the broader election. welly women in fact support romney more than wealthy men. so why do wealthy women like romney? it's not taxes. taxes didn't rank among the top five concerns of women. ron kurts says that affluent women place a higher emphasis on economic and budget issues and they see romney as the better candidate for those issues. that doesn't mean that romney is scoring well with all after fluent women. in fact, 16% of these...
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Sep 28, 2012
09/12
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with the election, with the fiscal cliff coming up. i think that now is a good time to take profits for the year. 14.50 is our price target for the year end. next year i have to say i'm probably skewed to be more negative. but there's a couple of data points that i can't ignore. one of which is sentiment. we track wall street sentiment. and we found that it is actually at the lowest levels we've ever seen since we began tracking this measure back in 1985. >> wow. so that's the contrary indicator. >> exactly. there's a lot of hatred for equities. a lot of negative news priced into the equity market at this point. i think that it's more likely to surprise on the up side rather than the down side. there's a lot to be negative about at this point. i think there's the fiscal cliff, there's europe, there's china. so a lot of the headlines that we see are fairly negative. but the fact that everyone is at a point where they are underweighting equities relative to bonds more than they ever have tells me equities could actually surprise to the u
with the election, with the fiscal cliff coming up. i think that now is a good time to take profits for the year. 14.50 is our price target for the year end. next year i have to say i'm probably skewed to be more negative. but there's a couple of data points that i can't ignore. one of which is sentiment. we track wall street sentiment. and we found that it is actually at the lowest levels we've ever seen since we began tracking this measure back in 1985. >> wow. so that's the contrary...